IBM Five in Five IBM 五年里的五项课题


在1609年,伽利略发明了望远镜,因此我们就以一个全新的方式来观看我们的宇宙。他也证明了地球和太阳系里的天体都是绕着太阳运行的,然而在这以前是无法观察到的。IBM 的科研就是沿着这个方向,追求从宏观层面一直到纳米级新的科技设备和先进软件程序。

考虑一下在五年之内五项发明课题将会改变我们的生活:

一,使用人工智能,我们的言语就成为观察心理疾病的窗口

在五年之内,我们的言语和写作就可以用来查询我们心理和病理的状态。新的认知系统将可以分析的言语和写作模式,从而提供早期发育障碍、精神疾病和退行性神经疾病的迹象,可以帮助医生和患者更好地预测,监测和追踪这些情况。

脑部障碍,包括发育障碍,和神经退行性疾病在内的脑部疾病,造成了人们的痛苦,也造成人们在这方面付出了巨大经济负担。

认知计算机将分析患者的言语或书面文字,寻找语言中的病情的特征,包括含义,语法和语调方面的不当使用。

在病人舒适的家里,用人工智能观察曾经不被人注意的迹象将成为将成为患者进入某种精神状态的可能性的明确信号,或者对他们的治疗计划进展如何的一个测定根据。因此,日常生活的评估,就补充了定期临床访问的数据。

二,超级图像显示技术和人工智能将大大提高我们的观察能力

在五年之内,新的显示器会使用超级图像显示技术,在人工智能的帮助,结合多个电磁波谱,使我们将观察到超出肉眼范围的图像,从而揭示有价值的见解或潜在的危险,或隐藏的视图。

超过99.9%在超级图像显示器上显示的内容都是我们肉眼所看不到的内容。

看到在我们本来用肉眼所看不见的或隐约可见的物理现象,可以帮助司机和自驾车辆更清晰地知道道路和交通状况。例如,使用摄像机和其他传感器的毫米波成像仪,就可以帮助汽车驾驶员或者自驾车辆穿过雾或雨,检测危险和难以察觉的路况,如暗冰,或者告诉我们是否有物体在前方,并知道离它的距离和它体积的大小。认知计算技术将把所获得的信息进行推断,并可以判断出能是马路中有一个倒翻的垃圾桶,还是一个可能导致轮胎爆胎的一个洞。

三,“宏观望远显微镜”将帮助我们了解地球的无限复杂性的细节

五年之内,我们将使用机器学习算法和软件来帮助我们整理有关物理世界的信息,将数以百万计设备所收集的庞大而复杂的数据,变成我们人类可以看懂和理解的资料。我们称之为“宏观望远显微镜” - 既不是像显微镜只能用来看非常小的东西,也不是望远镜只是为了看远处的东西,它是一个软件和算法系统,从空间和时间的角度来分析地球上所有的复杂数据。

今天,物质世界只能让我们看到我们能够用肉眼看到的一点相互联系和复杂的生态系统。至于我们收集到的数以百万计的数据却是互不关联的。事实上,约科学家们的百分之八十的时间是用来清理数据,而不研究这些数据从中找出这些数据所提供的意义。

得益于物联网,新的数据源从数以百万计资料源,诸如冰箱,灯泡和心率监测器到远程传感器,如无人机,摄像机,卫星和望远镜阵列,涌向科学界。

宏观望远显微技术将改变许多行业,同时提出我们所面临的一些最基本问题的新见解,例如食物,水和能源的可用性。

例如,宏观望远显微技术可以处理例如望远镜收集的各层数据量和复杂数据的复杂索引和相关性,以预测小行星相互碰撞并了解其构成。

四,医学实验室中的“芯片”将成为追踪疾病的纳米级健康侦探

五年之内,医学实验室中的“芯片”将成为追踪疾病的纳米级健康侦探。这芯片会在我们的体液内追踪无形的线索,一旦我们需要去看医生,它就立即会告诉我们。现在的目标是把通常需要在生化实验室里对疾病分析和处理的所有过程都浓缩到一个硅芯片里。

提早发现疾病是关键。对于绝大部分病例来说,越早发现就越有治愈或者病情得到控制的状态。然而,像癌症或帕金森氏病这样的疾病很难发现,因为在症状出现之前病情只是隐藏在我们的身体里。我们已经知道,关于我们的健康状况的信息可以从体液如唾液,眼泪,血液,尿液和汗液中的微小生物粒子中提取。现有的科学技术面临着捕获和分析这些生物颗粒的挑战,这些生物颗粒比人发的直径小几千倍。

实验室的芯片技术最终可以被包装在方便的手持设备中,以便人们能够快速定期测量少量体液中的生物标志物的存在,并将这些信息从其便利和安全地传输到云端的储存处。在那里,它可以与来自其他物联网设备,(如睡眠监视器和智能手表等),的实时健康数据相结合,并通过人工智能系统进行分析以获取参考结论。综合起来,这个数据集可以让我们深入了解我们的健康状况,并提醒我们遇到麻烦的第一个迹象,帮助阻止疾病发展。

五,智能感受器能够以光速来测定周围环境的污染状况

在五年之内,价格适中的智能感受器将可以实时查明在天然气开采井、天然气储存设施,以及天然气输送管道是否有肉眼无法察觉的漏气状况。

人的肉眼是无法发觉污染的状况,除非严重到污染造成后果以后才察觉。

在美国,石油和天然气系统的排放是大气中最大的甲烷气体工业来源。

把物联网上的智能感受器无线连接到云端,这样就可以在几分钟内监控巨大的天然气基础设施是否有泄露的情况,而不是要几个礼拜的时间才知道。这样就可以大大减少污染和浪费,也防止了灾难性事件的发生。


讨论问题:

  1. 你觉得这篇文章有什么地方让你感兴趣的吗?

  2. 你是否在你周围听到或者想到有些什么发明将会改变我们的生活?

  3. 这些发明对你的生活是否会有负面的影响?

  4. 你是否觉得将来电脑是否会取代人?














www.salt-and-light.org/Audio/IBMFiveToFive.mp3

In 1609, Galileo invented the telescope and saw our cosmos in an entirely new way. He proved the theory that Earth and other planets in our solar system revolve around the Sun, which until then was impossible to observe. IBM Research continues this work through the pursuit of new scientific instruments – whether physical devices or advanced software tools – designed to make what’s invisible in our world visible, from the macroscopic level down to the nanoscale.

Consider five innovations that will change our lives in the next five years:

1.  With AI, our words will be a window into our mental health.

In five years, what we say and write will be used as indicators of our mental health and physical wellbeing. Patterns in our speech and writing analyzed by new cognitive systems will provide tell-tale signs of early-stage developmental disorders, mental illness and degenerative neurological diseases that can help doctors and patients better predict, monitor and track these conditions.

Brain disorders, including developmental, psychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases, represent an enormous disease burden, in terms of human suffering and economic cost.

...Cognitive computers will analyze a patient’s speech or written words to look for tell-tale indicators found in language, including meaning, syntax and intonation.

... What were once invisible signs will become clear signals of patients’ likelihood of entering a certain mental state or how well their treatment plan is working, complementing regular clinical visits with daily assessments from the comfort of their homes.

2.  Hyperimaging and AI will give us superhero vision

In five years, new imaging devices using hyperimaging technology and AI will help us see broadly beyond the domain of visible light by combining multiple bands of the electromagnetic spectrum to reveal valuable insights or potential dangers that would otherwise be unknown or hidden from view. Most importantly, these devices will be portable, affordable and accessible, so superhero vision can be part of our everyday experiences.

More than 99.9 percent of the electromagnetic spectrum cannot be observed by the naked eye.

...A view of the invisible or vaguely visible physical phenomena all around us could help make road and traffic conditions clearer for drivers and self-driving cars. For example, using millimeter wave imaging, a camera and other sensors, hyperimaging technology could help a car see through fog or rain, detect hazardous and hard-to-see road conditions such as black ice, or tell us if there is some object up ahead and its distance and size. Cognitive computing technologies will reason about this data and recognize what might be a tipped over garbage can versus a deer crossing the road, or a pot hole that could result in a flat tire.

3.  Macroscopes will help us understand Earth's complexity in infinite detail

In five years, we will use machine-learning algorithms and software to help us organize the information about the physical world to help bring the vast and complex data gathered by billions of devices within the range of our vision and understanding. We call this a "macroscope" – but unlike the microscope to see the very small, or the telescope that can see far away, it is a system of software and algorithms to bring all of Earth's complex data together to analyze it by space and time for meaning.

Today, the physical world only gives us a glimpse into our interconnected and complex ecosystem. We collect exabytes of data – but most of it is unorganized. In fact, an estimated 80 percent of a data scientist’s time is spent scrubbing data instead of analyzing and understanding what that data is trying to tell us.

...Thanks to the Internet of Things, new sources of data are pouring in from millions of connected objects -- from refrigerators, light bulbs and your heart rate monitor to remote sensors such as drones, cameras, satellites and telescope arrays.

...Macroscope technology will transform many industries while revealing new insights about some of the most fundamental problems we face, such as the availability of food, water and energy.

... Beyond our own planet, macroscope technologies could handle, for example, the complicated indexing and correlation of various layers and volumes of data collected by telescopes to predict asteroid collisions with one another and learn more about their composition.

4.  Medical labs “on a chip” will serve as health detectives for tracing disease at the nanoscale

In 5 years, new medical labs on a chip will serve as nanotechnology health detectives – tracing invisible clues in our bodily fluids and letting us know immediately if we have reason to see a doctor. The goal is to shrink down to a single silicon chip all of the processes necessary to analyze a disease that would normally be carried out in a full-scale biochemistry lab.

Early detection of disease is crucial. In most cases, the earlier the disease is diagnosed, the more likely it is to be cured or well controlled. However, diseases like cancer or Parkinson’s can be hard to detect – hiding in our bodies before symptoms appear. Information about the state of our health can be extracted from tiny bioparticles in bodily fluids such as saliva, tears, blood, urine and sweat. Existing scientific techniques face challenges for capturing and analyzing these bioparticles, which are thousands of times smaller than the diameter of a strand of human hair.

Lab-on-a-chip technology could ultimately be packaged in a convenient handheld device to allow people to quickly and regularly measure the presence of biomarkers found in small amounts of bodily fluids, sending this information securely streaming into the cloud from the convenience of their home. There it could be combined with real-time health data from other IoT-enabled devices, like sleep monitors and smartwatches, and analyzed by AI systems for insights. When taken together, this data set will give us an in depth view of our health and alert us to the first signs of trouble, helping to stop disease before it progresses.

5.  Smart sensors will detect environmental pollution at the speed of light


In five years, new, affordable sensing technologies deployed near natural gas extraction wells, around storage facilities, and along distribution pipelines will enable the industry to pinpoint invisible leaks in real-time.

Most pollutants are invisible to the human eye, until their effects make them impossible to ignore.

...In the United States, emissions from oil and gas systems are the largest industrial source of methane gas in the atmosphere.

...Networks of IoT sensors wirelessly connected to the cloud will provide continuous monitoring of the vast natural gas infrastructure, allowing leaks to be found in a matter of minutes instead of weeks, reducing pollution and waste and the likelihood of catastrophic events.


Discussion questions:

  1. What is interesting about this article?

  2. What are some innovations that you think or heard about that will change people's lives, in your region of the world, in the near future?

  3. What are some negative effects that these new innovations could have on our lives?

  4. Do you think computer will ever replace man?

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